Background
The gu pastoral assessment was carried out between May 27-June 9, 2003.
In Somaliland and Puntland pastoralists migrate seasonally between three main grazing zones, depending on the on the rainfall performance, pasture and water availability. These gazing zones are the Hawd and Sool Plateaus and Nugal Valley (Figure 1). During normal seasons, pastoralists do not travel great distances but stay within their traditional grazing areas. The level of in- and out-migration is one of the main indicators of the season's performance in a particular grazing area. Out migration is mainly triggered by poor pasture and water resources but disease outbreaks and insecurity can also compel herders to leave with their animals.
FSAU, FEWS NET and their partners conduct pastoral assessments twice a year during the gu and deyr seasons to determine seasonal performance on the rangeland and hence, on pastoral household livelihoods. The gu 2003 assessment coincided with a worsening drought and growing concern from both Somaliland and Puntland authorities about the impact of successive rainy season failure, exacerbated by delayed gu rains in April-May this year.
Objectives of the Assessment
1. Determine overall gu 2003 season performance on pastoral livelihoods;
2. Identify vulnerable population groups and areas requiring heightened surveillance; and
3. Recommend feasible and appropriate humanitarian interventions.
Principal Findings
Performance of the 2003 gu varied between grazing areas, as discussed in the following sections.
Hawd Plateau Food Economy Zones
The rain started on time and normally throughout the Hawd Plateau. Distribution and intensity were normal to above normal; pasture regeneration and water replenishment were adequate. Livestock recovery from the preceding harsh dry season or jilaal (November through mid-March), body conditions, reproduction and milk reproduction rates were normal to above normal. However, due to previous below-normal rains in the deyr season, camel conception rates were below normal during the gu. For sheep and goats, on the other hand, reproduction rates were normal to above normal due to the good deyr rains. Extra goat milk production is expected to offset income deficit from poor camel milk sales and will possibly increase normal household incomes and food sources. Yet, pasture and water resources are not expected to last before the next rainy season (October).
Deeh, Aduun and, Golis Food Economy Zones
Generally, the gu season performance was average to above average in these grazing zones. Similar to conditions in the Hawd, the pastoral production indicators show that households will have normal access to enough food and income over the coming months. Livestock conditions are also normal in these food economy zones.
Dharor Food Economy Zone
Consecutive seasons of poor rains affected the upper Dharor of Sanaag region, which extends from Erigavo to Bosaso districts. Gu season rainfall was only 10% of normal, prompting a large-scale out migration of pastoralists households to the neighboring Golis Mountain ranges and Upper Nugal Valley. These households are not expected to return to their home areas until the next deyr rains, expected in October, improve the situation.
Nugal Valley Food Economy Zones
The Nugal Valley is divided in to two parts: Upper and Lower Nugal valley. The Lower Nugal Valley extends from Taleh District of Sool Region up to Dangorayo Distric t of Nugal Region. In this pastoral zone, rains started late and were below normal. Water run off and floods from the Sool plateau, which normally help pasture to regenerate, did not come either because rainfall was poor in Sool plateau and did not provide enough water run off. Moreover, 80% of the Lower Valley experienced rain failure and rains could not replenish water sources or regenerate pastures fully.
Livestock, especially camels, migrated to the Hawd while sheep and goats (shoats) migrated to parts of Upper Nugal Valley, an area experiencing successive rain failure like the Sool plateau. However unlike their counterparts in the Sool plateau, pastoral households in the Lower Nugal Valley have easy access to water from hand dug wells. The Upper Nugal Valley received good rainfall, which is more or less similar to that received in the Hawd. The pace of seasonal recovery for those households and animals that migrated was normal.
Sool Plateau Food Economy Zone
This zone has been experiencing successive rainy season failures over the past 2-3 years that resulted in overgrazing and poor livestock productivity. Drought also decimated a significant number of livestock. Moreover, the population of Sool Plateau has been facing acute food insecurity due to the following factors:
* Decreased herd size and non-optimal herd composition
* Poor livestock productivity and marketability
* Shrinkage of food sources and income options
* Shifting of wealth groups (fewer better-off and more middle and poor households) and a reduced asset base.
* Social support fatigue
* Extreme coping mechanisms and environmental degradation, and
* High malnutrition rates among children and mothers.
The Current Situation
Poor Household Food Sources: Baseline Year
Gift: 7%
Camel milk: 10%
Shaot milk: 13%
Purchase: 70%
Poor Household Food Sources: Current Access
Purchase: 52%
Shaot milk: 13%
Gift: 5%
Deficit: 30%
The gu 2003 rainfall was only 10% of the normal in the Sool Plateau (Figure 2) which covers part of Sool, Bari and Sanaag Regions. However, localized rainfall in parts of Bari and Sanaag brought about some relief in terms of water availability and limited forage regeneration. These areas experienced a sustained in-migration and overgrazing which could reverse the beneficial effects of the previous rainfall. The poor rains in the Sool plateau resulted in early out-migration towards the Nugal Valley, Hawd, Deeh and coastal areas. Better off households used trucks to transport their animals while poorer households trekked theirs, leaving a trail of dead camel and shoats along the migration routes and near water points.
For those who remained in the plateau, access to water is still difficult for livestock as they rely on water trucking from various permanent water points. Water prices are unusually high, ranging from Ssh 30,000-50,000 per drum compared with Ssh 10,000 in a normal year, due to the long distance between pasture and water points.
The number of marketable animals within the herds is rapidly declining due to weak body conditions that lead to falling prices and hence, low purchasing power especially among poorer households and lower strata of middle wealth groups.
Pack animals (camels and donkeys) are hardest hit by the current drought due to scarce vegetation and more frequent water transportation stress. Some 20-30% of shoats died. As the gu season coincided with the delivering period of sheep; birth rates were high but pastoralists culled the new-born to save the mothers. This action is expected to undermine the future herd reconstitution and sustainable off-take as well.
Poor Household Baseline Vs Current Situation
In a normal year, poor households in the Sool Plateau receive income and food sources from livestock and livestock products. Livestock products (milk, ghee and meat) contribute about 23% of annual household energy needs. Market purchase contributes about 70% while the remaining 7% comes from gifts and social support (Figure3). However, drought induced shocks changed food access significantly from baseline conditions. For instance, livestock productivity (milk, meet and ghee) reduced to about 50% of the baseline and households now obtain only 13% of their energy needs from livestock products. Moreover, gifts and social support declined and now contribute about 3% instead of 7%.
As bulk of poor households' energy comes from market purchase, cash income is always needed to buy staple foods. The sale of livestock products provides about 40% of household income in a normal year, followed by the sale of livestock (37%). Self-employment, paid employment and gifts/social support contribute 25%, 14% and 3% respectively.
However, successive rain failures and drought have reduced poor household income levels. Analysis of the 2003 gu season, supplemented by field observations by FSAU and FEWS NET, shows that (after applying potential expandability) sale of livestock products contributes 18%. However, income from sale of livestock expanded and reached about 43%; income from self-employment and paid employment reduced to 50% of the baseline and now contribute about 29% and 10%, respectively. By using all possible coping options to the maximum, households in the Sool Plateau were able to reduce their initial income deficits. However, they are still facing a food gap of about 30%, which is likely to prevail up to the next rainy season (deyr). External assistance is therefore crucial to bridge this gap.
Conclusion
Of late, the pastoralist in this food economy zone experienced recurrent drought and below-normal rains, which impaired vegetation cover and water availability and weakened livestock conditions. Furthermore, the below-normal gu rains triggered huge asset losses, debt burden, low purchasing power, reduced options of coping strategies and drastic reduction of social support as fewer households had the means to support others. The resultant food gap among poorer households has led to the resumption of charcoal making activities, which had previously been stopped by the communities with the support of the local authorities.
FSAU and FEWS NET estimated that 9-10,000 poor pastoral households living in the Sool Plateau of Sanaag, Sool and Bari Regions are currently facing moderate food insecurity. Humanitarian intervention is needed to avert further asset depletion and worsening food insecurity, not to mention more charcoal making, which can reduce rangeland carrying capacity in the future.
USAID/FEWS NET Somalia; Tel: 254-2-350523/4/5 email: [email protected]