Introduction

Under the co-ordination of the National Committee for Drought Preparedness and Prevention (NCDPP) in Somaliland, a drought assessment mission was carried out in early January 1999. Participants included ministerial, UN and NGO representatives from Somaliland, with an active role by the FSAU.

Background Information

The current situation in Somaliland is an accumulation of the following factors:

* The livestock ban
* unfavourable rainfall distribution
* poor crop harvests
* higher than normal livestock levels - increasing pressure on resources
* low water storage capacity due to past conflict (destruction of water points)
* lack of maintenance of water storage facilities
* limitations on free movement of people and livestock

Mission's Observations

* Abnormally large movements of pastoral people and their livestock out of the Haud area, to Nugal valley, region V Ethiopia and the nearby mountains.
* Abnormally large numbers of cattle (approximately 75%), owned by the Agro-pastoral people of Hargeisa, Boroma and Gabiley areas have been moved to the coastal Guban area.

The above abnormal human and livestock migrations signifies a shortage of water rather than a shortage of food.

Key Issues

Pastoralists

The poor pastoralists that remain in the Haud area will be unable to afford water to sustain themselves and their livestock until the next rains, for the following reasons:

* livestock value is up to 50% lower than prior to the livestock ban, making water relatively expensive
* water prices are up to 4 times higher than normal in the Haud as a result of low water stocks
* the non-poor own water facilities whereas the poor rely heavily on buying water
* credit, a normal coping mechanism, appears to be less accessible given the uncertain economic conditions

Agro-pastoralists

* As a result of cattle having been moved to the coast, many agro-pastoralists have lost access to vital milk sales.
* Due to low livestock values fuel for the boreholes in the coastal areas is prohibitively expensive, thereby endangering cattle lives.

Recommendations

- how far do we need to quantify water and fuel needs?

* Water for poor pastoralists is required by the end of February in the Haud area (southern Sool is considered most vulnerable). 3-4,000 poor pastoral families remain in the Haud.
* Fuel for boreholes in the coastal, Guban region. Several hundred litres of fuel would be required for 3 boreholes, to last for 2-3 months
* Food for poor Agro-pastoralists in Gebiley, Hargeisa and Boroma areas; to receive a 50-75% ration for the next 4 months
* Urban poor - no food needs; to be confirmed
* Rainfall levels have not been significantly below normal, though distribution has been poor; this is confirmed by reasonable availability of pasture and normal livestock conditions
* human health conditions are normal

Further Explanations

Historical context - water sourcing

Serious conflict in Somaliland occured between 1994 and 1996, particularly in the Haud areas. One of the repercussions of this was the destruction and lack of maintenance of many traditional water storage facilities. Water shortages during those years were dealt with by large-scale temporary migrations to Ethiopia. Abnormally high 1997/1998 El Nino rains will have disguised the water storage problems.

Food Economy Groups in Somaliland

Somaliland has 3 Food Economy Groups:

* Pastoralists - 55-70% of the population; largely dependent on camels, goats and sheep for their access to food and water.
* Agro-Pastoralists - 5-15%; dependent largely on a combination of cereals and milk sales (from cattle)
* Urbanites - 25-30%; with varied income sources

Previous Food Security Analysis - FSAU

A July 1998 FSAU report looking into the impact of the livestock ban and the poor gu harvest in Somaliland recommended the following food needs:

Urban - none Pastoral - none, though water needs to be monitored Agro-Pastoral - the poorest 25% to receive a 25% ration for 4 months = 100Mt However the report noted that if the ban was not lifted, over the next 6 months, factors affecting the economy would include:

* local cereals rising in price; livestock value decreasing; imported cereal prices to remain constant
* poor harvest, reduced water reserves
* reduced spending on non-essentials by agro-pastoralists; urbanites to eat cheaper cereals; pastoralists to sell more animals.

Further, the forecast at the time predicted that if grazing and milk production would decrease due to poor rains, the deficit for poor Agro-pastoral households could increase to 20-50% of annual food needs. These predictions now largely apply in practice.

FSAU is managed by WFP/Somalia, funded by EC/Somalia Unit, the Italian Co-operation and WFP/Somalia, and supported by USAID/Somalia and FAO. FSAU partners are WFP/Somalia, FAO, FEWS/Somalia, SCF/UK, Terra Nuova and ACF/Paris. Telephone: (254-2) 622929, 622947 Fax (254-2) 622698 E-mail: [email protected]